Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 21.686652 22.921562 24.223725 25.704993 27.350608 29.131307 31.215564
2026-01-04 19.679402 21.310789 23.107098 25.250297 27.763101 30.648827 34.263419
2026-01-11 18.883791 20.800889 22.978075 25.668919 28.957043 32.917458 38.169836
2026-01-18 18.165784 20.277708 22.735392 25.860896 29.814261 34.776068 41.704574
2026-01-25 17.305182 19.505087 22.111539 25.498073 29.896783 35.600351 43.908915
2026-02-01 16.534712 18.784407 21.489446 25.067504 29.821013 36.161916 45.756785
2026-02-08 15.635973 17.856855 20.553701 24.164347 29.036008 35.664665 45.972178
2026-02-15 15.416720 17.754579 20.638761 24.576957 30.028241 37.697712 50.201371
2026-02-22 15.143299 17.565641 20.595237 24.804048 30.764678 39.411522 54.155858
2026-03-01 14.559824 16.955939 19.975539 24.211210 30.288225 39.261303 54.975376
2026-03-08 13.657948 15.909874 18.749214 22.734631 28.457638 36.918232 51.762146
2026-03-15 13.391109 15.675479 18.582885 22.713420 28.742903 37.861537 54.431751
2026-03-22 13.142763 15.502901 18.551435 22.966599 29.585025 39.978439 60.039180
2026-03-29 12.676932 15.029893 18.099420 22.603472 29.480181 40.570897 62.949634
2026-04-05 12.502308 14.930385 18.142945 22.946615 30.480983 43.129595 70.495679
2026-04-12 12.279882 14.754639 18.068526 23.104952 31.193591 45.274165 77.829334
2026-04-19 11.927117 14.387142 17.706941 22.806154 31.124941 45.966081 81.927229
2026-04-26 11.580679 14.015767 17.323636 22.450891 30.929655 46.386844 85.475178
2026-05-03 11.133401 13.492266 16.705019 21.702995 30.013325 45.297698 84.644230
2026-05-10 11.043135 13.458861 16.786397 22.045126 31.000953 48.132795 96.025510
2026-05-17 10.912621 13.363684 16.772465 22.233101 31.729694 50.549587 107.472849
2026-05-24 10.596032 12.997500 16.348443 21.741892 31.191254 50.156840 109.236381
2026-05-31 10.081161 12.341591 15.483268 20.511516 29.243958 46.508334 98.442656